phamos: (bamababy)
[personal profile] phamos
OK, so I went over to Real Clear Politics and made my own map of electoral predictions.

The pastel ones are a mix of states that I'm hoping might make the night slightly more interesting -- I think McCain will pull out North Carolina and Georgia in the end (10 hour lines in Atlanta??), but might get surprised by Montana and North Dakota. I also think that Obama's ground game will make the difference in Missouri and Indiana, and that Charlie Crist's bruised ego at not being chosen as McCain's VP will make the difference in Florida similar to how Jeb being governor made the difference in 2000. In a state as crazy as Florida, you need to have the state apparatus on your side, and Crist has no intention of going out on a limb for McCain right about now. Thanks for the extended voting hours, Charlie!! But I think Ohio and Pennsylvania will go Obama in the end, Nevada's looking like a lock based on early voting numbers, and the registration nightmares I thought we'd see coming out of Colorado and Virginia don't appear to have materialized, so I think he's got those wrapped up, too. So, as much as I'm totally panic-stricken, in my heart I think we're in good shape.

Some other thoughts on various other races? I think Saxby Chambliss is going to eat it in Georgia, and good fucking riddance. I think Mitch McConnell might make it through in Kentucky by the skin of his teeth, and it might honestly be partly from backlash to some nasty ads coming down from one of the unions. Good to know that no one party has a monopoly on ugly homophobia. I think Franken's going to lose in Minnesota in a squeaker. I've never thought Franken was a good candidate -- I think it was incredibly egotistical of him to think he would be able to win with all of the baggage he carries. I think he's a relatively funny guy, and I agree with him on most issues, but 15 years of sitting in 30 Rock coked out of your skull riffing on jokes about rape...that doesn't necessarily translate to rural Minnesota voters. If it's a very good day, we'll see Darcy Burner come out ahead in Washington, El Tinklenwhozitz kick Michelle Bachmann's botoxed ass in Minnesota, and Gary Trauner win the shit out of Cheney's old seat in Wyoming. None of them are a sure thing, but man, that would be pretty awesome. And John Murtha's probably going to lose in Pennsylvania, which I'm not particularly sad about. Ted Stevens SHOULD lose Alaska, but you never know -- that place is crazysauce. Kay Hagen's gonna beat Liddy Dole. Jeanne Shaheen is gonna beat mini-Sununu. I'm thinking at least one of the two Diaz-whatever brothers in Florida will lose. And if Prop 8 passes in California, I'm going to have a fucking fit.
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March 2009

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