phamos: (bamababy)
[personal profile] phamos
OK, so I went over to Real Clear Politics and made my own map of electoral predictions.

The pastel ones are a mix of states that I'm hoping might make the night slightly more interesting -- I think McCain will pull out North Carolina and Georgia in the end (10 hour lines in Atlanta??), but might get surprised by Montana and North Dakota. I also think that Obama's ground game will make the difference in Missouri and Indiana, and that Charlie Crist's bruised ego at not being chosen as McCain's VP will make the difference in Florida similar to how Jeb being governor made the difference in 2000. In a state as crazy as Florida, you need to have the state apparatus on your side, and Crist has no intention of going out on a limb for McCain right about now. Thanks for the extended voting hours, Charlie!! But I think Ohio and Pennsylvania will go Obama in the end, Nevada's looking like a lock based on early voting numbers, and the registration nightmares I thought we'd see coming out of Colorado and Virginia don't appear to have materialized, so I think he's got those wrapped up, too. So, as much as I'm totally panic-stricken, in my heart I think we're in good shape.

Some other thoughts on various other races? I think Saxby Chambliss is going to eat it in Georgia, and good fucking riddance. I think Mitch McConnell might make it through in Kentucky by the skin of his teeth, and it might honestly be partly from backlash to some nasty ads coming down from one of the unions. Good to know that no one party has a monopoly on ugly homophobia. I think Franken's going to lose in Minnesota in a squeaker. I've never thought Franken was a good candidate -- I think it was incredibly egotistical of him to think he would be able to win with all of the baggage he carries. I think he's a relatively funny guy, and I agree with him on most issues, but 15 years of sitting in 30 Rock coked out of your skull riffing on jokes about rape...that doesn't necessarily translate to rural Minnesota voters. If it's a very good day, we'll see Darcy Burner come out ahead in Washington, El Tinklenwhozitz kick Michelle Bachmann's botoxed ass in Minnesota, and Gary Trauner win the shit out of Cheney's old seat in Wyoming. None of them are a sure thing, but man, that would be pretty awesome. And John Murtha's probably going to lose in Pennsylvania, which I'm not particularly sad about. Ted Stevens SHOULD lose Alaska, but you never know -- that place is crazysauce. Kay Hagen's gonna beat Liddy Dole. Jeanne Shaheen is gonna beat mini-Sununu. I'm thinking at least one of the two Diaz-whatever brothers in Florida will lose. And if Prop 8 passes in California, I'm going to have a fucking fit.

Date: 2008-11-03 07:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
North Carolina doesn't inspire confidence in me, but I am hoping. The amount of basically hate mail to the democratic candidates I've gotten from republicans in the past couple weeks filled my trash can last night. :(

Date: 2008-11-03 07:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Ugh, negative ads drive me crazy. I was listening to CNN on my XM radio last night, and McCain had apparently done a HUGE ad buy. I was really aggravated, because I was under the impression that there weren't SUPPOSED to be ads on subscription-only radio, much less idiotic fearmongering bullshit ones. I'm going to complain.

Luckily, we don't get a whole lot of political mail in the post. Obama sends us stuff telling us where we can vote, but I think Republicans see Madison as a lost cause and don't waste the postage.

Date: 2008-11-03 08:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]

Yeah, I think McConnell is probably going to keep his seat...which sucks but honestly Lunsford is not much of a Democrat and probably wouldn't be all that great in the Senate. Still though, I guess anything would be better than Mitch (or as my mother has always called him, "Howdy Doody")

I put my Obama bumper magnet back on my truck today. I had taken it off at Halloween in case pranksters decided to steal it or harm my truck because of the magnet. There's been some pretty strong anti-Obama sentiment where I live with people getting heckled at polling places and whatnot. I quit wearing my Obama shirt a while ago too. I always got way more dirty looks than pleasant ones when I wore the shirt. With the recent rise here in anti-Obama actions, I chose to quit wearing it for the safety of Nick whom is with me almost everywhere I go. I'm fine with taking crap for my views and beliefs but there's no reason to put him at risk. It makes me sad that in 2008 I can't express my political views openly without having to worry about someone slashing my tires or verbally attacking me. It's quite depressing.

Date: 2008-11-03 11:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
I think Franken's going to lose in Minnesota in a squeaker. I've never thought Franken was a good candidate -- I think it was incredibly egotistical of him to think he would be able to win with all of the baggage he carries.

This really, really chaps my ass. In a state that Obama looks set to carry by double digits, there is really no excuse to have a Republican incumbent hang onto his seat when it looks like we might spring upsets in far less fertile territory (like North Carolina as you point out and--oh please oh please oh please--Georgia). At least in Maine, Collins is firmly entrenched but Coleman is a freshman senator who only got in because of the post-Wellstone nonsense. I can't believe we couldn't dig up a more credible candidate. Klobuchar won by something like 16 points in 2006 and we shouldn't be scraping by in this one, much less lose. Argh.

Of course, my snarky side is wondering why the hell Minnesota had to decide NOW they that suddenly don't like celebrity candidates. Go next door and knock some heads for me. ;)

Date: 2008-11-03 11:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Minnesota's love for offbeat celebrity candidates is being tested by its simultaneous love for crazy third party candidates. Dean Barkley is splitting the Jesse Ventura vote that Franken was hoping to capture.

There were perfectly good candidates running against Franken in the primary. None of them had his name recognition, but I really think any of them would have had an easier time against Coleman in this particular political climate. The whole thing cheeses me off. If Franken does indeed lose, I AM TAKING STUART SAVES HIS FAMILY OFF MY NETFLIX QUEUE!! That'll show him.

Date: 2008-11-04 12:01 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Because he wasn't good enough, he wasn't smart enough, and doggonit, people don't like him!

Of course, if he does manage to pull it off, all is forgiven and we'll start getting more SNL alumni in the Senate. Tina Fey? David Spade?

Date: 2008-11-04 12:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
I think Sandler's gonna run as a Republican in Palm Springs. They love that shit down there.

Date: 2008-11-04 12:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Your map looks entirely reasonable EXCEPT that N.C. should totally be leaning McCain, not solid McCain (not that that changes the electoral vote count) and Indiana? Aintsta.

The thing about Franken is that he can freehand draw a fantastically accurate US map including all state boundaries. No tracing. Virtually perfect. That's all I need to know about him; he's the man.

Date: 2008-11-06 04:23 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
I am glad Murtha got his seat. He was honest about his constituents. It's a racist area. Glad being honest didn't cost him the election...


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